Article
Using Foresight to Explore the Future of Work
Imagining learning in a world without colleges and universities
Share
Released:April 1, 2019
Project: Brave New Work
During the Kroeger Policy Connect workshop on March 1, students and the PPF policy team explored potential outcomes in a scenario where post-secondary education — as currently provided by colleges and universities — no longer exists. Scenarios that stretch the imagination are an effective means to get people to accept and plan for different futures. Participants must work backwards to plan for this new scenario, driving a storytelling process that makes the scenario seem more realistic.
‘Planning in reverse’ requires us to stretch our thinking. To prepare for unexpected circumstances in the future of work, policy-makers will need to do just that. Engaging people who might have the potential to see things differently can help.
Using foresight scenario planning with students within a short time frame (three hours) allowed for quick, structured idea generation. Students’ own experience in the post-secondary system, coupled with their imagination, resulted in some interesting ideas.
What is foresight and why is it useful?
Strategic foresight is the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments at the margins of current thinking and planning. Foresight tools are useful because we can’t always expect to extrapolate from historical trends, especially when planning for issues as complex and dynamic as the future of work.
The changing nature of work will be influenced by a complex web of interacting mega-trends — demographic shifts, technological changes, social and political evolutions, and environmental changes. PPF doesn’t intend to predict the jobs, skills, and employment prospects of the future with precision. To adapt to and benefit from these changes, Canada will need a flexible, precautionary policy approach that can deal with a wide range of scenarios, large-scale changes and previously unimaginable pathways forward.
What did the students expect?
The students in this workshop were neither surprised nor worried about a future where the post-secondary system as it currently exists is completely disrupted and transformed. In fact, the students shared personal experiences in which prospective employers had downplayed the significance of academic credentials as a prerequisite of employment. They seemed comfortable with a future in which post-secondary education is less relevant.
When asked to describe what a future without post-secondary education might look like, and to identify its potential challenges and new opportunities, the students articulated a few outcomes:
- Increased privatization of learning. The students foresaw that young people would turn to private institutions and/or corporations for courses and skills training. Rather than following a fixed curriculum, students would have the flexibility to select courses on an ad hoc basis. They speculated whether increasingly non-linear education pathways would inject a diversity of skillsets and backgrounds into the Canadian workforce.
- Increased emphasis on apprenticeship and ‘on-the-job’ training. The students speculated that employers would be increasingly responsible for providing training and upskilling opportunities for their employees. Rather than finding skills training at educational institutions, young employees would receive practical, job-specific training from their employers.
- Increased significance of K-12 education. The reduced relevance of post-secondary education would require young people to make career decisions at an earlier age. For this reason, participants wondered if there would be increased pressure on K-12 education systems to prepare young people for their future work. This would include more than skills and competency training, but also comprehensive exposure to a broad spectrum of career pathways.
What are the challenges associated with this scenario?
- Unclear career pathways. Students speculated that career trajectories would no longer be clear or linear. For this reason, they imagined the onus might be placed more heavily on the individual to ensure that they acquire the necessary skills and for their training to be successful.
- Increased financial pressure on employers. The students mentioned that not all employers have the means to provide extensive professional development opportunities to employees. In a scenario where employers are the primary providers of education and training, smaller organizations would have difficulty recruiting young talent.
- Unequal access to professional experience and training. The students worried that a stronger emphasis on professional experience as a credential for employment would contribute to systemic inequalities. They explained, for example, that not all Canadians have the means to take unpaid work to gain professional experience.
What are the new opportunities presented in this scenario?
- Increased democratization of learning. The students wondered whether an increased emphasis on continuous learning and on-the-job training would make education more accessible. They believed that this scenario would lower current barriers, including the cost and time commitment of traditional post-secondary education.
- Increased flexibility and opportunities for career pivots. The students were excited by the prospect of increased career flexibility that would accompany the elimination of post-secondary education. They speculated that current education systems pigeonhole workers into one profession or sector. Ad hoc training and courses would provide more flexibility for workers to gain new skills and shift career paths.
As a convener in the policy process, PPF is grateful for the chance to learn from students who participated in the foresight workshop. While the insights generated are not a prediction of the future, they will help inform our own ongoing research and reinforce the value of engaging young people and non-specialists in scenario development and testing.
Thanks to the Kimiya Project Lab and Kroeger College for connecting the Public Policy Forum with students through the Kroeger Policy Connect program.
Brave New Work is a major multi-year initiative by the Public Policy Forum, with the support of the following sponsors and partners:
Thank you to our lead sponsor:
 |
Thank you to our partners:
 |
 |
 |
Reports
Automation, AI and COVID-19
A majority of Canadians indicate they have at least a basic understanding of AI and automation. Politicians have an opportunity to seize upon this perceived knowledge to address coming challenges by linking COVID-19 solutions to challenges — and potentially positives — presented by AI and automation. This new report by Peter Loewen and Blake Lee-Whiting shows signs that Canada has not seen a large populist backlash to the pandemic, but that could be coming, perhaps against immigration policies, if citizens feel the government is not following through on job creation.
Managing Transformation in Disrupted Sectors
There are lessons to be learned from industries that have survived and thrived through disruption, as well as those that have failed to navigate industry transformation. We need to learn from the past while we look for innovative ways of working together to rebuild the economy. To achieve these goals, we need to plan for inevitable change as all sectors, no matter how resilient writes Lori Turnbull. With the right tools, workers, employers and sectors can fortify themselves in a new economy.
Navigating Precarity in Non-standard Work
An estimated 30 percent of the Canadian workforce is engaged in non-standard, precarious work, with an inability to transition to something more stable. As the labour market has been upended by the COVID-19 pandemic, now is a critical time to examine what has played an integral part in shaping the current landscape of our labour market. This paper explores policy considerations around data, benefits and alternatives to envision a future where precarity does not have to be a reality.
Improving the Linkages between University and Work
COVID-19, the skills gap and automation have all conspired to change the work landscape in Canada and post-secondary institutions must respond to those changing needs. Add to that the fact that employers have been complaining for some time that new hires don’t have the skills the workplace demands, and you have a reason to re-evaluate the way universities operate. They tend to focus on content but employers are looking for cognitive and behavioural skills over content and disciplinary knowledge.
Emerging Stronger: Addressing the Skills Under-Utilization Challenge for the Future of Work in Canada
How can Canada use its highly skilled workforce as we transition to a knowledge economy? In their new report, AJ Tibando and Arvind Gupta explore Palette Inc., a not-for-profit platform that was created to upskill diverse and non-traditional workers in an ICT sector biased against hiring them. It looks like the Palette model is working.
The Future is Now: Creating Decent Work Post-Pandemic
Artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, the sharing economy and other emerging technologies were expected to upend the nature of how people work, eliminate an array of routine and repetitive tasks, and put pressure on social support frameworks designed for a different era. These impacts expected to be felt in the near to medium term suddenly find themselves present. The need to reinvent Canada's social and economic policy frameworks has a newfound urgency.
A Place-Based Lens to the Future Of Work in Canada
An urban-rural scan of potential long-term effects of the future of work shows the negative effects of a displaced workforce will be felt disproportionately among rural residents, who make up the majority of high-risk employment sectors that will succumb to technology-induced disruption. Understanding how these changes could affect urban centres vs. rural areas is a crucial ingredient to long-term policymaking and key to creating an effective place-based policy agenda for Canada to manage those disruptions and keep an urban-rural economic divide that already exists from growing
Managing Precarious Work: Three Canadian Models for Rebalancing Bargaining Power in the Future of Work
Hear the expression “precarious employment” or the “gig economy” and you’ll almost certainly think of the Uber driver who took you to the airport last week. However, precarious employment dates back much further. This report examines three entrenched models—construction workers, those in film and theatre, and those in academia—for recommendations governments can use to address the growing challenge of gig work.
Old Gigs, New Gigs: Are Courts and Legislators Reinterpreting an Age-Old Debate for the New World of Work?
Courts and legislatures are deciding whether your Lyft driver is an independent contractor or an employee. The classification is a big deal, affecting workers' protections through to retirement. This paper surveys the current state of the gig economy and how courts, tribunals and legislatures in North America and the UK are tackling the issue of employment classification.
Automation, AI and Anxiety: Policy Preferred, Populism Possible
Who is fearful of automation and what do they want politicians to do about it? This paper finds a correlation between Canadians’ fear of job losses from automation and populist and nativist views—but also that Canadians favour traditional government policy approaches to job disruption, such as retraining, more than radical measures such as reducing immigration.
Facilitating the Future of Work Through a Modernized EI System
Gaps in Canada’s Employment Insurance program are already leaving too many workers behind as gig work, part-time jobs and self-employment grow. EI needs to be modernized now to support Canadians as they transition to an economy and labour market disrupted by technology and automation.
Skills, Training and Lifelong Learning
Training for working Canadians is scarce, and the people who most need it are the least able to get it. As global competition and technological change increase, Canada needs to create effective and inclusive systems of training, which are essential for innovation, growth, employment and good incomes. In this report, Daniel Munro looks at Canada's strengths and weaknesses, training models from around the world, and suggests improvements to lifelong learning systems.
Articles
Pandemic Learning: Paid Micro-Training Opportunities for Post-Pandemic Recovery
Broad, rapid government support received widespread support in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on their public opinion research, Peter Loewen and Blake Lee-Whiting argue that Canadians, especially those who lost income or jobs during the pandemic, would be eager to receive government-assisted skills training as part of that support.
Commitment to lifelong learning is win-win for manufacturing company AVIT and its employees
A people-centric approach at AVIT Manufacturing in Peterborough, Ont. means that employees are continuously offered opportunities to upgrade their skills and learn new ones. AVIT provides a prime example showing that encouraging lifelong learning in workplaces is an asset. Read this case study by Daniel Squizzato on navigating precarity on managing transformation in disrupted sectors – all for PPF's Brave New Work project on the future of work.
Surviving Disruption in the Shipbuilding Industry
Irving Shipbuilding Inc. found itself in the middle of a rapidly changing shipping industry, and had to adapt to the evolving requirements of talent and infrastructure. Their grow-at-home approach may be the one to adopt in other disrupted sectors too. Read this case study by Sherry Scully on managing transformation in a disrupted sector – all for PPF's Brave New Work project on the future of work.
“It’s possible to make every job a good job, we just decide not to”: Lessons from the film industry for the gig economy
Millions of modest-income earners in Canada are precariously employed. The pandemic has created more unstable economic conditions than ever before--we need a plan for the future of precarious work. Read this case study by Catherine Lathem on navigating precarity in non-standard work – all for PPF's Brave New Work project on the future of work.
“I will have to work until the day I die”: Could portable benefits bring financial hope to essential workers caught in the messy middle of Canada’s economy?
Gig-work continues to grow in preference among workers for its flexibility, but increasing frustration surrounding the lack of benefits is proving to be an important challenge that needs to be tackled. Could portable benefits be the solution the gig-work economy needs? Read this case study by Catherine Lathem on navigating precarity in non-standard work – all for PPF's Brave New Work project on the future of work.
Federal program aims to support lifelong learning, but analysts call for changes
The government is looking for ways to support citizens in lifelong learning-- the Canada Training Benefit is one way of doing this. However, it may not be enough. Read this case study by Rosanna Tamburri on education innovation – all for PPF's Brave New Work project on the future of work.
As a means of reskilling Canada’s workforce, are microcredentials a boon—or just hype?
Microcredentials are emerging as a popular method for upskilling, but their lack of standardization, among other concerns, may impact whether or not these programs are here to stay. Read this case study by Rosanna Tamburri on education innovation – all for PPF's Brave New Work project on the future of work.
UHN’s Michener Institute “revolutionized” health care training. Does it hold lessons for other sectors?
The Michener Institute is the only postsecondary institution that directly works to meet the immediate needs of the healthcare system. "The Michener Model" may not only be valuable for Canada's evolving healthcare landscape, but may also have transferrable learnings for other sectors, too. Read this case study by Rosanna Tamburri on education innovation – all for PPF's Brave New Work project on the future of work.
It’s not a problem we need to solve, it’s really about good management
As the world of work continuously shifts, modernizes and innovates, what moves can be made to get and stay ahead when it comes to making work more accessible? PPF co-hosted The Future of Accessible Work panel discussion with Microsoft Canada featuring national and international accessibility leaders & advocates. This speaker series engaged PPF members to learn about accessibility and inclusion straight from the experts. To keep the conversation going and share our lessons learned, we have encapsulated five significant takeaways from the discussion.
Brave New Work Newsletter #4
In the fourth edition of our Brave New Work Newsletter: Our latest report on rebalancing bargaining power in the future of work, a panel discussion on the future of Alberta's energy sector, and two of our latest blog posts.
Stewarding AI and cultural change: It’s everybody’s business
What will it take to steward digital development and support workers and the broader public as we transition to a more automated future? Emerging leaders from the Banff Forum say the underlying principles we follow – and insist on – may make all the difference.
Moving gig work into good work: Making sense of the new legal landscape around the gig economy
The debate over the employment status of gig workers continues to play out in California legislation. What can Canadian regulators learn for our own first attempts at legislation from California’s decision to enact Assembly Bill 5?
Learning to Change: Worker Resilience and Adaptability
What does it mean to be adaptable and resilient as a worker, in the face of radical changes to work? With a focus on Alberta, emerging leaders from the Banff Forum and the City of Edmonton discussed policy lessons and policy solutions to prepare individuals and employers for workforce change.
Paycheque to Paycheque: Coping with Income Volatility as Work Changes
What can we do about workers living paycheque to paycheque, with the rise of the gig economy and future changes to work? Emerging leaders from the Banff Forum gathered and came up with a holistic set of policy measures for improving the well-being of workers and to help prevent economic marginalization as work changes.
Brave New Work Newsletter #3
In the third edition of our Brave New Work Newsletter: Five things we learned at our Brave New Work Conference, our latest report on the correlation between Canadians’ fear of job losses from automation and populist and nativist views, and a new blog post on why 'robots will replace us' thinking is not that simple - or that scary!
Robots will replace us!
The most popular way of analyzing the future of work — the labour substitution model — is far too narrow for our complex world. By looking at three other dimensions of change, we can better understand, and prepare for, tomorrow’s opportunities.
Five big things we learned at the Brave New Work Conference
The prospect of losing our jobs to automation may keep us up at night and change our politics, but there are other factors at play, too. Here are five key challenges and some smart policy responses that emerged at the inaugural Brave New Work Conference.
Report Preview: Do Canadians’ fears about automation push them to populism?
In an upcoming report for PPF’s Brave New Work project, Peter Loewen and Benjamin Allen Stevens find a correlation between Canadians’ fear of job losses from automation and populist and nativist views—but also that they favour traditional government policy approaches to job disruption, such as retraining, more than radical measures such as reducing immigration.
Why the future of work may be the most pressing issue of our time
Today’s technological revolution holds out tremendous promise to improve our lives and work, writes PPF's President and CEO Edward Greenspon, but we must ensure its opportunity is available to all, and that policy softens the downsides of the disruption it causes. Join our Brave New Work project to be part of the solution.
The future of work is a gender equity issue
Job displacement could disproportionately push women out of the workforce in Canada's jobs future. Women fill many of the lower-paid, often precarious jobs and if contingent work becomes more common it will entirely disrupt the notion of a career ladder - and leadership positions are already dominated by men.
Brave New Work Newsletter #2
In this second newsletter: New report on big gaps in Employment Insurance, emerging leaders share principles for inclusion that we should all follow, and we learn how disrupting the career ladder creates challenges to gender equity.
How do we build an inclusive future of work?
Emerging leaders from the Banff Forum gathered to discuss: Who is missing from Canadians' dialogue about our brave new world of work? They came up with a clear set of guiding principles and recommendations for policymakers.
Brave New Work Newsletter #1
In this first edition of our Brave New Work Newsletter: A new report on the strengths and weaknesses of Canada's training systems, what Canada’s associations see trending in the future of work, and students imagine how Canadians would learn if universities and colleges no longer existed.
Canada’s Associations See What’s Trending in the Future of Work
From new ways of approaching lifelong learning to recognizing that technology is not the only driver of workplace change, representatives of Canadian associations shared their perspectives on the changing nature of work and how workers and employers are affected.
Three ways to reduce anxiety about the future of work
Rapid change in how we work can stoke fears of a jobless future, but these key policy changes can help turn anxiety into opportunity.
Events
What We Learned: Brave New Work Round Up
PPF's flagship Brave New Work project is wrapping up by rounding up the perspectives and insights of over 20 of the people who contributed to the project over the years. We ask them what they learned about the future of work, and what they recommend needs to be done next.
Past Event
Turning Point 2020: When the Future of Work Became the Present
When we look back on 2020, we’ll see a turning point, but right now the destination is unclear. This free, 3-part virtual conference on the future of work in Canada was held on June 16, 17, & 18th, 2020.
Past Event
Work in Progress: Why jobs are changing and where are the opportunities for all?
And why are jobs changing? Join the Indigenomics Institute's Carol Ann Hilton and Microsoft's Edoardo de Martin for a dialogue facilitated by SFU's Mark Winston on June 14 in Vancouver.
Past Event
Brave New Work Conference
Technology, demographics and other factors are transforming the world of work – and quickly. Push aside the dystopian scenarios and watch this discussion that helped shape policy pathways to enable Canadians to thrive in the jobs of the future.
News
Public Policy Forum and TD Bank Group announce multi-year Future of Work strategic partnership
During the April 12 Testimonial Dinner, TD Bank Group's Norie Campbell announced a three-year initiative with PPF to advance a pan-Canadian policy dialogue on the changing nature of work.