LIVE UPDATES: 2025 Canada Growth Summit

9:33 a.m. 

The global shift reshaping Canada’s economic future

Geopolitical turmoil and the total upending of North American free trade have created unprecedented challenges that are already taking a toll on economic growth and competitiveness. 

The next panel will be discussing how Canada can re-shape its economic future. It is the urgent question on the minds of many Canadians today. 

The panel is moderated by Marta Morgan, a senior advisor with McMillan Vantage and a former deputy minister, Foreign Affairs. Speakers include: 

• Cynthia Leach, Assistant Chief Economist, RBC 
• David MacNaughton, Former Ambassador to United States & President Palantir Technologies Canada 
• Michael McAdoo, BCG Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment 

9:21 a.m. 

A ‘complicated’ time for the Canadian economy

Avery Shenfeld, chief economist with CIBC World Markets, is up next to talk about the forecast for the Canadian economy. 

My job has become a lot more complicated, he begins. The outlook for the Canadian economy looked pretty good not long ago, he says. Inflation was under control and we were starting to see rewards.

We started the year healthy, but now we have U.S. trade troubles, he says. Canada is a trading nation. So where do we go? He sees a ray of optimism.

Canada’s retaliatory measures would never dissuade the U.S. But the blowback has become more widespread. Europe, Asia, China pushback are adding to the pain in the U.S. “I think that this sort of company that we’re now in with the rest of the world is in fact, our best weapon in getting Donald Trump back to the negotiating table,” he said.

We’ve also learned from Trump’s first term, he said. Confidence in the Canadian economy has never fully recovered from Trump’s early trade threats. Where do we go from here? 

Things will look rocky for a while, but we hope tariff threats will ease, he said. Still, we will have our work cut out for us in restoring brisk economic growth. Plan A is getting back to the negotiating table. But what is Plan B, he asks? That will be the focus of conversation today. 

Can we do more interprovincial trade? Yes, it’s a worthy effort. (Stay tuned for Doug Ford’s comments later today.) But geography works against us, he said. A CIBC survey of data showed that by taking into account the distances to U.S. markets and their relative size compared to Canadian markets, “you could fully explain why provinces trade more north south than east west.”

The Buy Canada movement is very important, he said. It’s not something Trump can retaliate against. Canadians did it on their own. “It’s a remarkable movement” with no leader — “This is the most grassroots movement ever,” he says. And it will help spur Canadian economic growth. 

Capital spending will be important. We’ll need investment to expand industry — pipeline investment, investment in resource extraction. And services are very important, he said. The focus in the U.S. on manufacturing jobs is backwards looking. 

Where are there other opportunities? They are in the knowledge economy, and we need to talk about whether Canada is attracting the right talent or cultivating the right talent in areas like AI. If you look at Canada’s natural resources, you tend to look at the trees and rocks and so on, but one of our natural resources is our people. We are a talent magnet. We can put that intellectual capital to work. We have a lot of opportunities that we haven’t fully tapped in the knowledge economy where we can get some economic growth. 

There’s a risk that we don’t get this trade deal. And if they did go ahead with the tariffs they announced on April 2, or if the tariffs against Canada remain, we will have a recession here in Canada. To get us out of that recession, we will need some thinking about the longer-term things we can do to make us less vulnerable to the next U.S. President who makes the wrong decisions.

Hope for the best in trade negotiations, but it’s time to put on our thinking caps, he concluded. 

9:00 a.m. 

Policy change ‘at the velocity of a social media post’

CPAC host and anchor Michael Serapio is this year’s Growth Summit emcee — his third time in the role. 

“And boy, to say that the world has changed in the last three months would be an understatement,” he says. 

“In the last three and half months alone, the winds of change blowing into this country from our neighbours below have cost Canada not only jobs and investment but also changed our assumptions about Canadian trade and how — and with whom — we build our future prosperity.”

But the challenges aren’t all with the U.S., he notes. Chaos south of the border only adds urgency to longstanding problems here including productivity and competitiveness, which will be discussed in detail throughout the day. 

PPF President and CEO Inez Jabalpurwala takes the stage for the welcome address.

“As we have been building our agenda these last months, we have been mindful of a heightened sense of urgency. Crafting an agenda with lasting resonance has been particularly challenging in a year when the global policy agenda changes at the velocity of a social media post,” she says.  

Jabalpurwala announces the launch of PPF’s latest project — Mission Canada, a blueprint to leverage Canada’s economic advantage. “This ambitious project will find ways to dismantle internal impediments to productivity and competitiveness, accelerate development in energy, critical minerals, infrastructure and other key producing sectors, as well as diversify Canadian trade,” she says. 

She also thanks the event’s sponsors as well as the sponsors of the expert pre-summit dinners, which were held at various locations across the city on Wednesday night. “Groups were huddled around tables discussing everything from local journalism to Arctic security, housing to life sciences, the energy transition to the Canada-U.S. relationship,” she says. (Check out coverage from our media partner POLITICO.)

“I hope you enjoy this ‘extraordinary event in extraordinary times’ — what one of our board members called an intellectual spa! And while we can’t promise a eucalyptus steam room I do know you’ll leave inspired, invigorated and equipped with new ideas and enthusiasm to go make more and better policy,” she concludes.

8:52 a.m. 

JP Gladu is back to introduce P.J. Akeeagok, Premier of Nunavut, for closing remarks. 

“The conversation in this country has changed and it needs to take hold,” he says. 

“There is great leadership being shown in uncertain times,” says Premier Akeeagok. “When Indigenous people are at the table, projects and certainty, you get that. The projects we’re talking about move much faster.” 

At the heart of the conversation is how to grow the Canadian economy, especially at a time when Canada’s economy is facing unprecedented challenges. “The shift in the geopolitical landscape really radically altered just in the last few months, both the national and international and circumpolar world really has put a spotlight to the north,” he said. 

“All eyes right now are on the Arctic,” he says. “We are the gateway to the Northwest passage and at the forefront of the conversation when we’re talking about security and sovereignty.”

We are at a moment where we all have to rise up. The North offers so much in terms of certainty, opportunity, and I think we are on the cusp of some great things as acountry that are really nation-building. 

There is unity in Nunavut to build Arctic security and a vision for the North, he says. Part of this includes nation-building projects. There are key projects coming that allow Inuit to be at the centre of the development, he says. 

For instance, he says he just signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew to advance a fibre link between southern Canada and the North — the first of its kind.  

HEAR MORE: Mark Podlasly and JP Gladu have both been guests on PPF’s podcast WONK. Listen to their episodes here and here. 

8:40 a.m. 

“It’s become very apparent that the Indigenous economy is one that is quite extraordinary, and one that we need to really pay attention to,” says JP Gladu, in opening remarks. 

Over the next decade, Canada anticipates $30 billion in capital investments in major energy mining and forest projects, he notes. “These, my friends, are nation building projects that rely on skilled trades and increasingly on the strong relationships and partnerships with Indigenous people.”

In 2022 the Indigenous economy was at just over $60 billion, which grew from 10 percent the year before. “When Indigenous people are at the table, projects move faster,” he says. 

Mark Podlasly, CEO of the First Nations Major Projects Coalition, is moderating the panel. He starts with a question around investment challenges and the benefits of Indigenous equity. What’s the main barrier to Indigenous participation in major projects?

Sajid points out that the Indian Act means Indigenous people have not been able to use their land as collateral for loans. The federal Indigenous Loan Guarantee program implemented last year means this lending is seen as lower risk and organizations are able to get better returns.

Indigenous communities need a loan guarantee because they can’t use their land as collateral. The Loan Guarantee Program was created to fill that gap — the government backs the loan so it’s seen as lower risk and better terms can be offered.

Hungerford reminds the panel that First Nations frequently do not have the ability to leverage reserve lands, which raises challenges because there’s no access to capital markets. 

When you think about Arctic projects, there are few lenders who can take big risks, which is where the Canada Infrastructure Bank steps in, explains Hillary Thatcher. It uses accelerator funding, debt provision and direct equity lending to ensure communities have the capital to have a seat at the table.  

Sajid speaks about the success of the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation program, which came out of Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s calls for equity Indigenous access to capital. Sajid says the program started at $1 billion, focusing mainly on natural resource projects, but since then their mandate has expanded to $3 billion and more areas, from telecommunications to tourism. 

“In the last five years … we’ve impacted 43 unique Indigenous and Metis communities,” she says, including a community that was able to build a multiplex after a wildfire. Ultimately, the program will generate billions in impact, Sajid adds.

Podlasly asks if Federal Loan Guarantees will work with territorial and provincial projects going forward. Michael Bonshor, with the Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corporation, says the plan moving forward is to collaborate with Alberta, Ontario and soon, B.C. to meet the scale of anticipated investment. “We have $10 billion at our disposal. We’re going to need more.” The more efficient we can be collaborating with provinces, the better, he says. 

Podlasly asks Hungerford about working to get access to capital for communities across Canada. Hungerford mentions that, when looking to how economies grow and what institutions they need to grow the Indigenous economy, he considered the province of Quebec, and how it was able to transform itself in the mid-century through major projects like Hydro Quebec, asset management that was able to invest in the economy, venture capital, and other institutions.

With loan guarantees, he says, we have some of that in place. But, he asks, can you imagine if we had something like the tools of the World Bank — concessionary financing, other kinds of business-focused finance — available for Indigenous communities. In the future, he says, we will see some programs starting to evolve, so it’s not the project itself, it’s ownership of the spin-offs — construction, trades, and so forth that are associated with the project. 

What kinds of projects is CIB investing in, Podlasly asks Hillary Thatcher. She cites B.C.’s ‘Call to Power’ green electricity projects, where CIB worked closely with various groups. They were able to bring in more private capital and reduce cost for rate players. “We’re trying to help Canada through its green transition.” Small modular reactors will be a game changer, both for energy and for Indigenous partnership, she adds. 

A question from the floor about the role of polytechnics in Indigenous economic growth. Hungerford notes that engineering is an area where we will need to see a lot more Indigenous people. But, beyond that, there is a need for governance of these development corporations. “How can we get directors trained up so they are able to run these enterprises?”

“When Nations participate in these deals they are building their financial acumen,” Sajid adds, “But these are really complex projects.”

Looking forward, Sajid says the Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation is “just getting started.” She says that 10 years ago, this would have been a completely different conversation, but recent developments in provincial and federal loan programs means it’s “a really exciting place to be.” Canada is at a pivotal moment when we’re having conversations about food and energy security, Sajid says, and it’s important that Indigenous participation remains at the core of those conversations moving forward.  

Michael Bonshor concludes by noting that the gap in income between those living on reserve and off have been persistent. It’s going to be programs like Indigenous loans guarantees that are going to help address that. In 10 or 20 years, those gaps will be gone, he says. Hungerford mentions the tension that exists between Indigenous communities who want to develop real estate and municipalities that often put up roadblocks to that development — an area that policy may be able to help resolve.

7:30 a.m. 

We kick things off with the third annual Indigenous Ownership and Inclusive Growth Breakfast, focusing on Indigenous leadership in Canada’s next big energy, infrastructure and mining projects. JP Gladu, Principal at Mokwateh, is the co-host of the session.  

We’ll be hearing this morning from panelists:

• Hillary Thatcher, Managing Director, Investments, Canada Infrastructure Bank 
• Geordie Hungerford, Indigenous Finance Executive 
• Shafak Sajid, Interim Director, Engagement Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation
• Michael Bonshor, Board Chair of Canada Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corporation   

7:30 a.m. 

Watch #GrowthSummit2025 live on CPAC.  

Thursday, 7:00 a.m.

Growth Summit 2025 starts now. PPF Media will be reporting live throughout the day from the Fairmont Royal York Hotel in Toronto. We’ll have highlights from all the speakers as they delve into the most pressing issues facing Canada’s economy in what has been an extraordinary year of change and challenges.  

Among the panelists and speakers we’ll be hearing from at this year’s sold out event: former chief trade negotiator for Canada Steve Verheul, Premier Doug Ford, Canadian diplomat Louise Blais, Globe and Mail columnist Andrew Coyne and many more. See the full roster of speakers here. 

Here’s a taste of what’s in store. Watch our highlights from 2024.