Why population growth matters

David Campbell is a PPF Fellow and President of Jupia Consultants Inc., an economic development consulting and research firm based in New Brunswick. He is the author of the Substack It’s the Economy, Stupid! 

 An increasing number of economists are making the case that Canada doesn’t need to worry so much about population aging or slower population growth. There are studies suggesting that slower population growth can lead to a boost in GDP per capita, resulting in a stronger economy even without adding more people. 

Channelling my inner Johnny Cash over the past five years, my consulting work has taken me everywhere from Port Hope to Port Hawkesbury and Digby to Kenora, Bridgewater, Miramichi, Sackville, Botwood, Deer Lake, Chatham-Kent and dozens of other communities. 

What strikes me is how different this debate looks on the ground in these communities. 

Yes, if we dramatically increase oil production while slowing population growth, Canada may well increase GDP per capita. Economists may celebrate the productivity statistics. But are we missing the trees for the forest? 

What about the hundreds of communities facing a bleak demographic future? Statistics Canada provides annual components of population growth data for over 290 Census Divisions across the country.  In 2025, the vast majority – nearly 70 percent – had more deaths than births.  Of the 2,300 Census Sub-divisions, 80 percent had a larger 65+ population than the under 15 population.  

To illustrate the different demographic trajectories, Qualicum Beach, B.C. has 948 residents aged 65+ for every 100 aged under 15.  Lloydminster in Saskatchewan has 37 residents aged 65+ for every 100 aged under 15.   

This is why I believe we need a more human-centred approach to economic policy. Success isn’t just about GDP or productivity. Population growth is not just about meeting short term workforce demand. It’s about ensuring that in the longer term communities across Canada can thrive and offer residents a good quality of life. 

I was in Kenora recently and heard multiple stories about economic opportunities that did not proceed because employers couldn’t find workers. Kenora is an attractive small city serving a regional population of perhaps 100,000 people. Why wouldn’t addressing its workforce shortage be one of our top public policy priorities? 

In my view, Canada should be targeting population growth of at least 1.5 percent annually, while directing more of that growth to communities where it is needed most.

Peel Region records roughly 250 births for every 100 deaths. Digby records closer to 50 births for every 100 deaths. These communities do not face the same demographic challenge and should not receive the same policy response. 

I’ve said many times that not every community has the assets and attributes to become a high-growth success story. That’s reality. But government policy shouldn’t actively make their demographic challenges worse. 

Take Miramichi in New Brunswick. The city welcomed about 300 permanent residents in 2024, roughly 1 percent of its population. That number was cut in half in 2025, and it remains unclear what 2026 will bring. 

With the current immigration and population strategies in Canada, my concern is that hundreds of communities could enter a long-term downward spiral. As employers struggle to find workers, services decline. As services decline, more people leave. The shrinking population makes it even harder to sustain schools, health care, local businesses and municipal infrastructure. That spiral could continue for decades. 

The past four or five years have shown that this outcome isn’t inevitable. Newcomers have chosen communities like Steinbach, Brandon, Yarmouth and Edmundston. We know people are willing to settle outside Canada’s largest metropolitan areas. The challenge now is creating the policy environment that supports continued attraction and, even more importantly, long-term retention. 

 Most population growth will come through immigration. There is undeniably a growing backlash against newcomers in some parts of the country. If local governments are not committed to welcoming new residents, we should focus on communities that are. Settlement is already difficult enough without resistance from city hall. Governments should prioritize places that are investing in housing, settlement services, workforce integration and community support. 

Ultimately, we should ask ourselves a simple question: what is the purpose of economic growth? 

Surely it is to sustain vibrant communities with high-quality public services, modern infrastructure and a strong social safety net. If we allow hundreds of communities to endure decades of demographic decline simply because it improves GDP per capita, then we’ve lost sight of the big picture. 

 In other words, we’ve been so busy looking at the forest that we’ve lost sight of the individual trees.