Introduction

After struggling for years with economic stagnation and chronic out-migration, Atlantic Canada added 260,000 to its population between 2019 and 2025. This population growth led to a rejuvenated workforce and helped boost economic growth and government tax revenue.

While some of this unprecedented population growth came from interprovincial migration, the majority of the new residents were from outside Canada. It was not without its growing pains: This added pressure to already stressed public services and infrastructure.

Now that immigration and international student levels are being reduced across Canada, there is a growing fear that the gains of recent years could be lost. The business community across the region was investing again because it had an increased faith in the future talent pipeline. Now that could be in jeopardy.

The region continues to struggle with skill shortages and a shrinking domestic workforce. A skilled and educated labour market plays a vital role in shaping the economy, boosting innovation and increasing productivity.

This report looks at the Atlantic Canadian labour market, its current challenges and opportunities. Using the most up to date data, the report provides an analysis of the demand and supply.

One thing is clear: there will be no economic growth in Atlantic Canada without workforce growth. Since 1982, statistics show a clear correlation between the two. The number of workers that will be needed is significant: In the coming decade Atlantic Canada will need to fill 441,000 jobs — and a time when there are increasing limits to immigration. Between 2024 and 2025, permanent resident admissions dropped by over 30 per cent across Atlantic Canada. The number of temporary foreign workers has dropped 28 per cent at a time when rural employers are desperate for talent.

The aging population also adds to the challenge. In 2011, there were 12 communities in the region where a third of the population was over 65. By 2035, there will be 175.

On top of all this, there is the AI wildcard. Given the scale of the challenges facing Atlantic Canada today, AI alone is unlikely to resolve labour market issues or significantly improve the region’s productivity.

Overcoming these hurdles will take focused planning and unprecedented coordination between all levels of government, post-secondary education and industry across the region, on everything from immigration, international student attraction, entrepreneurship development and economic development. Without thoughtful action now, Atlantic Canada faces a crisis that could undermine recent success and the future viability of communities across the region.

The relationship between workforce growth and economic growth

Economic growth requires a growing workforce

Growth in the Canadian economy going back decades has been correlated to growth in the workforce. Between 1982 and 2006, the national economy expanded by an average of 2.7 per cent per year and the workforce by 1.5 per cent per year. This meant the economy was getting more productive (i.e. real GDP per worker) throughout the more than two-decade period but growth in the workforce was critical to drive expansion of the economy. Over the 24-year period, the Canadian workforce increased by 5.3 million.

The story was similar in Atlantic Canada. While the real GDP growth rate was slightly less over the 1982-2006 timeframe averaging 2.5 per cent per year, the workforce expanded by 1.0 per cent per year. The slower rate of workforce growth relative to GDP growth was partially related to the growth in capital-intensive industries such as offshore oil and gas in Newfoundland and Labrador. Still the region overall required consistent growth in the workforce to support a strong rate of economic growth. Across the four Atlantic Provinces the workforce grew by 270,000 people between 1982 and 2006.

In the early 2000s it became clear that the workforce was aging fast and there were not enough young people joining to support annual economic growth in the 2-3 per cent range.

In many provinces across Canada, there was a push to bring in more immigrants to ensure a growing workforce. In Saskatchewan, immigration rose from an average of 2,000 per year in the 1990s and early 2000s to an average of 10,100 per year from 2007 to 2019 (a five-fold increase).

In Atlantic Canada, the move to attract more immigrants started much later (except Prince Edward Island) and the average annual growth in the workforce declined from 1.0 per cent per year from 1982-2006 to only 0.3 per cent per year from 2007 to 2019. This was a 68 per cent decline in workforce growth compared to the 1982-2006. Predictably, real GDP expanded by only 0.9 per cent per year across Atlantic Canada from 2007 to 2019, down 63 per cent compared to the 1982-2006 timeframe. In New Brunswick, the shift was even more dramatic as average annual workforce growth dropped 84 per cent and average annual real GDP growth declined by 77 per cent. Prince Edward Island, which started to see a rapid increase in immigration by 2008 achieved the national growth rate in GDP between 2007 and 2019 and featured an average annual workforce growth rate of 0.9 per cent per year but that was still nearly three times faster than the other three Atlantic Provinces combined.

Since 2019 and the rapid population growth, the workforce has been growing again across Atlantic Canada and so has the regional economy. As shown in Figure 3, across Canada real GDP growth has averaged 1.9 per cent per year while workforce growth has averaged 1.8 per cent per year. In Atlantic Canada, the overall growth rates are up but not to the national level. However, this is mainly because of some specific challenges in Newfoundland and Labrador. GDP and workforce growth on P.E.I. has led the country while in Nova Scotia the economy and workforce expanded in parallel, faster than the country overall.

It is important to point out the labour productivity in this period has not been nearly as strong as the 1982-2006 timeframe. This has to do with a variety of factors including the types of jobs being created. There were more jobs in lower wage, lower productivity services industries (e.g. retail, personal services, accommodation services, etc.) and less jobs being created in higher value, higher wage industries (e.g. mining, oil and gas, forest products).

Which comes first, the chicken or the egg?

The causality of the relationship between workforce and GDP growth is an important consideration. It could be argued the Atlantic Canadian workforce did not expand much in the 2007-2019 period because industries were not expanding. There are several arguments against this idea. The most important one is related to the number of young people entering the workforce each year.

As shown in Figure 4, it may be surprising to find out the number of young people (aged 15-34) in the Atlantic Canadian workforce peaked way back in 1989 at 551,000 and started a slow decline thereafter until bottoming out in 2017 at 403,000. Since 2017, the attraction of mostly young immigrants has led to a growing population aged 15-34.

Between 2006 and 2017 alone, the workforce aged 15-34 declined by 29,000 in Atlantic Canada while increasing by 573,000 in the rest of the country. From 2018 to 2025, the 15-34 aged workforce across Atlantic Canada expanded by 84,000 and almost all that growth was due to new immigrants or temporary international workers (international students in school or using a post-graduate work permit). Workers aged 15-34 accounted for 61 per cent of all workforce growth between 2018 and 2025.

Tight labour market = Lost operating cost advantage?

Historically, many industries in Atlantic Canada faced lower wage costs compared to elsewhere in Canada. A lower overall cost of operations was key to the value proposition for export focused products and services. Now, for many export focused industries the operating cost advantage has declined significantly. Combined with lower productivity, many of these sectors are struggling to compete in export markets. There are many industries in the region where average hourly wages are similar to, or higher than, the national average hourly wage.

Consideration: Should Atlantic Canada accept fewer jobs but higher wage jobs?

In general, wage costs rising at or above the rate of inflation is a positive trend if it is combined with increasing labour productivity. When it comes to export industries (or local industries facing national competition), sustained higher wage increases compared to competitor jurisdictions without productivity gains imperils industry competitiveness and can lead to disinvestment in those industries and a curtailment of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Workforce availability is key to support export-focused industries

Atlantic Canada’s export-focused economy has weakened in recent years, with the exception of Prince Edward Island. Over the past 20 years, the inflation-adjusted value of exports has declined in the three provinces. This has led to an increase in the trade deficit (Table 2). The decline in the export economy is also correlated with the decline in average annual economic growth.

Export-focused industries that do not absolutely have to be located in the region (e.g. to exploit a mineral resource) will move to jurisdictions that have available labour (and other aspects of a beneficial operating environment). Atlantic Canada has seen downsizing in a number of export-focused and labour-intensive industries in recent years including food manufacturing, administrative and business services, and truck transportation.

Workforce Demand through 2035

This section provides a high-level assessment of workforce supply and demand in Atlantic Canada between now and 2035. It was developed using a variety of sources including Statistics Canada, Lightcast, the Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) published by Employment and Social Development Canada and industry specific forecasts (e.g. BuildForce Canada).

It is meant to reflect the most current information (e.g. the recent announcement of the Bay du Nord offshore project in Newfoundland and Labrador) and assumes the four provinces are successful developing new industries over the next 10 years (e.g. forest products in Nova Scotia). The overall workforce growth rates through 2035 are relatively conservative. The model projects New Brunswick’s workforce will grow by 12 per cent (annual average of 1.2 per cent), Prince Edward Island’s by 15.6 per cent (annual average of 1.6 per cent), Nova Scotia’s by 13.1 per cent (annual average of 1.3 per cent) and Newfoundland and Labrador’s by 12.4 per cent (annual average of 1.2 per cent).

The model assumes workforce supply will be addressed. A shortage of workers for construction, natural resources, energy, tourism or health care would curtail growth in these sectors and limit induced impacts in other industries. See Section 4 for a discussion of labour supply.

The model looks at both workforce replacement demand (i.e. the share of the 2025 workforce by industry that is expected to exit the workforce by 2035) and growth demand (i.e. growth from new development). The model does not take into consideration any large-scale disruption that may occur as a result of new technology (e.g. artificial intelligence, robotics, automation). It does imply some productivity gains in sectors such as transportation, professional services and manufacturing.

New Brunswick: Projected demand

In New Brunswick between 2025 and 2035, it is projected there will be 52,200 new jobs from growth demand and 83,500 jobs from replacement demand. This results in a total job demand of 135,700 over the decade. The top industry for new jobs will be health care and social assistance which is expected to see 30,100 jobs needing to be filled between 2025 and 2035 (12,200 from replacement and 18,000 from growth demand). Other sectors with significant jobs needing to be filled include construction (16,300 jobs), retail trade (13,100), manufacturing (9,500), educational services (9,200), public administration (8,900) and transportation and warehousing (7,500).

Most of the job demand in public administration, manufacturing, retail trade, transportation and other services will come from replacement demand whereas most demand in mining and health care will come from growth demand. Construction will see a mix as 8,000 jobs will be from growth demand and 8,300 jobs from replacement demand.

Only three of the high-level industries are projected to see outright employment decline between 2025 and 2035 including forestry and logging, fishing and business, building & other support services. This does not necessarily reflect a decline in output as these industries are expected to see productivity gains in the coming years.

In percentage change, the fastest growing industries over the decade are expected to be mining, health care and social assistance, construction, agriculture and accommodation and food services.

Prince Edward Island: Projected demand

On Prince Edward Island between 2025 and 2035, it is projected there will be 15,800 new jobs from growth demand and 18,800 jobs from replacement demand. This results in a total job demand of 34,600 over the decade. The top industries for new jobs will be construction (5,900 jobs) and health care and social assistance (also 5,900 jobs). Public administration is projected to need 3,100 jobs filled and manufacturing another 2,800. The accommodation and food services sector is projected to need to fill 2,400 jobs and retail trade 2,300.

Most of the job demand in agriculture, fishing, retail, educational services and public administration will come from replacement demand whereas most demand in construction and accommodation and food services will come from growth demand.

Only three of the high-level industries are projected to see outright employment decline between 2025 and 2035 including forestry and logging, fishing and mining/quarrying. This does not necessarily reflect a decline in output as these industries are expected to see productivity gains in the coming years.

In percentage change, the fastest growing industries over the decade are expected to be construction, transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food services, health care and social assistance, finance, insurance, real estate and rental, and professional, scientific & technical services.

Nova Scotia: Projected demand

In Nova Scotia between 2025 and 2035, it is projected there will be 73.500 new jobs from growth demand and 106,900 jobs from replacement demand. This results in a total job demand of 180,400 over the decade. The top industries for new jobs will be health care and social assistance (35,600 jobs) and construction (18,600 jobs). Retail trade will need to fill 17,800 jobs, manufacturing 15,500 jobs and educational services 12,900 jobs. The professional, scientific & technical services sector is projected to need 10,100 jobs from replacement and growth and the public administration 8,800 jobs.

Most of the job demand in retail, transportation, finance/insurance, educational services, information, culture and recreation, other services and public administration will come from replacement demand whereas most demand in forestry and logging, mining and health care will come from growth demand.

Only three of the high-level industries are projected to see outright employment decline between 2025 and 2035 including agriculture, fishing and wholesale trade. This does not necessarily reflect a decline in output as these industries are expected to see productivity gains in the coming years.

In percentage change, the fastest growing industries over the decade are expected to be forestry and logging, mining, health care and social assistance, utilities, construction and manufacturing.

Newfoundland and Labrador: Projected demand

In Newfoundland and Labrador between 2025 and 2035, it is projected there will be 33,700 new jobs from growth demand and 56,600 jobs from replacement demand. This results in a total job demand of 90,300 over the decade. The top industry for new jobs will be health care and social assistance (17,900 jobs to be filled), construction (14,700), retail trade (9,300), mining, quarrying, and oil and gas (6,900), public administration (4,900), educational services (4,700) and professional, scientific & technical services (4,500).

Most of the job demand in fishing, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, finance, insurance, real estate and rental, educational services, other services and public administration will come from replacement demand whereas most demand in mining and construction will come from growth demand. Health care will see a mix as 9,200 jobs will be from growth demand and 8,700 jobs from replacement demand.

Four of the high-level industries are projected to see outright employment decline between 2025 and 2035 including agriculture, fishing, wholesale trade and other services (except public admin). This does not necessarily reflect a decline in output as these industries are expected to see productivity gains in the coming years.

In percentage change, the fastest growing industries over the decade are expected to be construction, utilities, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, health care and social assistance and professional, scientific & technical services

Atlantic Canada: Projected demand

Across Atlantic Canada between 2025 and 2035, it is projected there will be 175,300 new jobs from growth demand and 265,800 jobs from replacement demand. This results in a total job demand of 441,000 over the decade. The top industry for new jobs will be health care and social assistance (89,500 jobs to be filled), construction (55,600), retail trade (42,500), manufacturing (31,500), educational services (29,000) and public administration (25,700).

Most of the job demand in agriculture, fishing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, finance, insurance, real estate, rental, business, building & other support services, educational services, information, culture and recreation, other services and public administration will come from replacement demand whereas most demand in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas, construction and health care and social assistance will come from growth demand.

In percentage change, the fastest growing industries over the decade are expected to be mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, forestry and logging, construction, health care and social assistance, utilities and manufacturing.

Self-employment: Projected demand

As of the 2021 Census there were over 51,000 self-employed persons over the age of 55. Over 19,000 of them had paid employees. Many of these folks play a vital role in the region and its communities as small business owners ensuring there is competition for local markets in communities large and small across Atlantic Canada.

Over four out of every 10 business owners will be retiring the next 10-15 years. It will be very important to be able to replace these business owners. The challenge is that young people are not taking to business ownership as in the past. Across Atlantic Canada for every 100 self-employed persons aged 55 or older there are less than 30 under the age of 35.

The challenge is even greater in rural areas. As shown in Figure 6, self-employment is down steeply in rural areas across Atlantic Canada with the exception of New Brunswick. There has been a 42 per cent decline in the number of self-employed persons in rural areas outside the CMA/CAs in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Source: Statistics Canada Table 14-10-0377-01.

How many new entrepreneurs will the region need in through 2035?

Not including potential growth demand, it is likely over 40,000 self-employed persons will retire by 2035 (80 per cent of those in the workforce in 2021). Among those self-employed that have paid staff, some 15,000 are likely to retire.

Urban versus rural: Workforce supply and demand challenges

There are significant differences in the demographic profile of the workforce in urban Atlantic Canada versus rural areas. In census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and census agglomerations (CAs), the share of the workforce aged 55 and older ranges from 18 per cent on Prince Edward Island to 20 per cent in the other three provinces. This means approximately one in five workers in the CMA/CA areas will retire within the next decade or so. Figure 7 shows the share of the workforce aged 55 and older in rural areas outside the CMA/CA areas. In Newfoundland and Labrador, 35 per cent of the workforce is 55 or older and in the other three the share is close to 30 per cent.

More concerning is the ratio of young people in the workforce to older workers. If there were as many or more young people joining the workforce, it would offset the number retiring. This is not the case in either urban or rural areas in Atlantic Canada. Figure 8 shows the ratio of workers aged 15-24 to those aged 55+ in rural areas outside of the CMA/CA areas. In Newfoundland and Labrador there are only 26 aged 15-24 for every 100 aged 55 and older. In the rest of the region there are more than two aged 55+ for every one person aged under 25.

The implications of this could be profound. Not only will rural areas not be able to meet growth demand, but they will also not even be able to meet replacement demand meaning industries such as health care, personal services and retail could end up reducing operations in rural areas across Atlantic Canada by 2035 if the replacement demand is not address.

Workforce Supply Considerations

Where will the 441,000 workers come from to fill workforce demand through 2035 across Atlantic Canada? This section looks at trends in workforce supply.

Implied domestic workforce supply

Assuming no inward flow of workers, how much of the workforce demand could be filled by local supply. As discussed elsewhere it is possible that more older workers will stay in the workforce beyond normal retirement. It is also possible that folks not currently participating in the workforce could join pushing up the participation rate. However, the labour market participation rate across the region has been declining slightly in recent years.

Assuming the growth in the workforce will come from young entrants, how many are likely to join the workforce in the next decade? There are 260,000 persons aged 5-14 living in the four provinces. Based on recent trends, it is likely two-thirds of them will find their way into the workforce over the next decade.

Table 9 shows the workforce demand and implied domestic supply picture through 2035 for the four Atlantic Provinces. Assuming two-thirds of the 5-14 aged population has joined the workforce by 2035, it will leave a workforce supply gap of an estimated 269,000 workers. Where will these workers come from?

Immigrants and temporary international workers

Immigrants and temporary international workers have been responsible for all net growth in the Atlantic Canadian workforce over the past decade. Temporary international workers are in the country with a work permit, but they are not permanent residents. They could be international students, graduates with a post-graduate work permit or others here under various temporary work programs.

As show in Table 10, in February 2026 the born in Canada workforce across the region was down by 21,500 workers compared to a decade ago. By contrast the landed immigrant workforce was up by 107,000 and other workers including Canadian citizens born outside Canada and non-permanent residents was up by 61,500. The number of immigrants and non-permanent residents participating in the workforce has increased by 3.3 times over the 10-year period.

It is important to point out that thousands of people born in Canada join the Atlantic Canada workforce every year. Unlike the past not enough join to replace those who leave the workforce (through retirement or other reasons). On a net basis, the region has relied heavily on the international workforce.

There is some variation by province. Newfoundland and Labrador has attracted the fewest workers from outside Canada relative to workforce size but there were still over 30,000 immigrants and non-permanent residents participating in the workforce in February 2026, up from 8,400 in February 2016.

Prince Edward Island has 4.5 times increase in the number of immigrants and non-permanent residents participating in the workforce between February 2016 and February 2026. PEI has led the country in workforce growth over the decade with a 27 per cent growth rate almost all as a result of attracting international workers

Nova Scotia has benefitted from an increase in immigrants and non-permanent residents participating in the workforce, too. The number of immigrants and non-permanent residents participating in the workforce increased by 80,900 between February 2016 and February 2026, a 2.3 times increase. The overall workforce expanded by 17 per cent over the decade with international workers accounting for almost all growth.

Like Newfoundland and Labrador, the born in Canada workforce in New Brunswick dipped by 1,400 over the last decade meaning immigrants and non-permanent residents accounted for all net growth in the workforce over the 10-year period. The overall workforce expanded by per cent over the decade with international workers accounting for all net growth.

Immigration changes risk future workforce growth

In 2024, the federal government decided to significantly curtail the number of people coming to Canada to live, work and study. This included an annual reduction in permanent resident admissions back to levels not seen in more than a decade. Further, the federal government has decided to reduce the number of international students and temporary workers.

This puts the future growth potential Atlantic Canada workforce at serious risk. As discussed above, all net growth in the workforce in recent years has come from immigrants and non-permanent residents.

Post-secondary education: Boosting the talent pipeline

Atlantic Canada’s universities and colleges have increased enrolment in recent years to help address the growing workforce demand. Between 2019 and 2024, post-secondary education enrolment in Newfoundland and Labrador has increased by 10 per cent, on Prince Edward Island by 28 per cent, Nova Scotia 16 per cent and New Brunswick 20 per cent. Across the region, total enrolment has been rising faster than the country overall.

This is important because of the impending retirement of as much as 25 per cent of the regional workforce in the next 10-15 years. When you look at the annual Post Secondary Education graduates relative to the workforce aged 55 and older, the ratio has declined in the past decade in three of the four Atlantic Provinces (Table 15).

Role of international students

The number of international students enrolled in post-secondary education in Atlantic Canada surged in recent years. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the number increased by 90 per cent, on Prince Edward Island by 82 per cent, Nova Scotia by 56 per cent and New Brunswick by 168 per cent (from a low base).

Atlantic Canada has been using international students to make up for declining domestic enrolment. The number of Canadian students enrolled in Atlantic Canadian colleges and universities dropped by eight per cent between 2014 and 2024 even as there was a growing need. Enrolment in humanities programs was down 33 per cent. Business-related programs enrolment was down 16 per cent, architecture, engineering and related technologies programs enrolment down 23 per cent and physical and life sciences and technologies programs enrolment down two per cent.

International students made up the difference in domestic decline and turbocharged enrolment in growth areas including computer sciences, architecture and engineering and health careers. In 2024 there were over 4,700 enrolled in mathematics, computer and information sciences programs and nearly 4,800 in architecture, engineering and related technologies programs.

Targeting immigration to meet workforce demand

Through initiatives such as the Atlantic Immigration Program, the region is getting better at targeting immigrants not just based on ‘points’ but on workforce demand in the four provinces. This still remains a challenge as too many newcomers are working in occupations not aligned to their skills and education. The number one predictor of long-term retention is a job/career aligned to the newcomer’s skills, education and interests.

Table 17 shows the permanent resident admissions to Atlantic Canada by top occupational groups between 2021 and 2025. This is not an exhaustive list, only the top occupations.

Using temporary foreign workers to meet targeted demand

Atlantic Canadian firms have used the temporary foreign worker (TFW) to meet targeted, usually seasonal, demand for workers in agriculture, fish plants and other manufacturing. Figure 11 shows the number of temporary foreign worker (TFW) positions on positive Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) by province between 2019 and 2025. Across the region, the number peaked in 2022 at 16,466 and has dropped to 11,842 by 2025. Nationally, the number of TFWs has dropped by 22 per cent, part of the federal government’s plan to reduce the number of temporary residents in the country.

Attracting interprovincial workers

Historically, the net interprovincial migration rate for the four Atlantic provinces has been negative meaning more people moving out to other provinces than moving in each year. Newfoundland and Labrador faced the steepest outward migration average a loss of 2,700 per year between 1973 and 2020. New Brunswick lost (net) around 800 per year on average between 1973 and 2016. In recent years, the interprovincial migration rate has flipped with more moving in than out. A closer look at migration by age group shows the vast majority of the in-migrants are working age.

But it is unlikely that interprovincial migration will be an important source of workers in the years ahead as other provinces are facing demographic headwinds as well. Further, some provinces – notably Alberta – is spending a significant amount of money trying to recruit people from Atlantic Canada to move out of the region. As shown in the table, the net interprovincial migration rate has already turned negative in New Brunswick and has declined significantly in both Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador.

Ensuring alignment between occupational supply/demand

It will be important to align the sources of workforce (PSE, immigration, temporary workers) to the needs of employers in the years ahead. This section looks at two examples where there will be a high demand for workers.

Example: Health care workforce

As developed in Section 3.5, the region is expecting to need nearly 90,000 workers in the health care sector between 2025 and 2035, from growth and replacement demand. The research firm Lightcast estimates the growth in workers by occupation between 2025 and 2033. Figure 12 shows the projected growth rate by occupation within the health care sector. There will be a 23 per cent increase in nurses and related occupations, 22 per cent growth rate in technical occupations related to therapy and a 19 per cent growth rate in technical occupations in dental health care.

Example: Construction and technical trades

One of the most important segments of the workforce over the next 20 years will be those working in the construction sector. A key plank in both the federal government and provincial governments’ economic development plans is the goal of building large infrastructure including energy, mining and transportation infrastructure. In addition, the expected growth in population will require building many more houses on an annual basis in Atlantic Canada compared to the first two decades of the 2000s. BuildForce Canada projects there will be a need for over 380,000 new workers in the construction sector by 2034 driven by major infrastructure and housing demand.

Across Atlantic Canada construction demand is expected to stay elevated due to new energy and utilities projects, major infrastructure investments and sustained residential housing growth.

The good news is there has been an increase in construction-related apprentices in recent years but there will likely need to be far more in the coming years.

Encouraging older workers to stay in the workforce

Across Canada the average age of retirement is slowly getting older. In 2015, the average age a private sector employee retired was 64.5. In 2025, it was 66 years. Among the self-employed, the retirement age in 2025 was 68.4 years up from 66.7 years a decade ago. Public sector workers now retire at an average age of 62.6 years up slightly from 61.8 years ten years ago.

In 2025, there were 80,100 persons aged 65 and older participating in some way in the regional workforce (part time, seasonal, full-time). This represented 13 per cent of the total population aged 65 and older. Typically, farmers and business owners tend to retire later than others.

If 25 per cent of the 65+ population continued to participate in the workforce through 2035 it would add another 70,000 to the regional workforce and reduce the pressure on inward migration. Further, the older workers could be targeted for jobs in tourism and other sectors that do not require year-round employment.

Immigration and Workforce Policy Successes

Federal immigration programs: Don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater

Arguably Atlantic Canada is in much greater need of attracting a younger population than many other areas in Canada. Figure 13 shows the natural population growth rate (births minus deaths) for selected Census Divisions across Canada in 2025. There are many areas in the country where the natural population growth rate is over two births for every death. In much of southern Ontario, the natural population growth rate is strong. Contrast that with Atlantic Canada where every province had more deaths than births in 2025. Rural areas are even more challenged. Charlotte County in New Brunswick only had 59 births per 100 deaths and the Southcoast of Newfoundland only had 25 births per 100 deaths. Many areas in Atlantic Canada are facing an unprecedented demographic reality.

And now there are serious calls to curtail the flow of newcomers into Canada. There has been a lot of debate about Canada’s immigration system in recent months with pundits complaining about the increase in permanent resident admissions and temporary residents. The federal government continues to cut the inflow, and the main opposition party is talking about even deeper cuts – not just to the numbers but to the types of immigrants brought into the country.

Almost no one is talking about which areas in Canada benefitted from the recent increases in immigration. The data is clear. Many immigrants into smaller urban centres and even rural areas. Table 21 shows the immigration rate per 10,000 population in 2019 compared to 2025 for selected CMAs and CAs across the country. Toronto and Montreal saw a decline in the annual inflow of immigrants (permanent resident admission). By contrast places like Saint John, Gander, Miramichi, Corner Brook, Kentville and Summerside all saw substantial increases in the number of permanent residents admitted between 2019 and 2025.

As discussed in Section 4.5, early indications are that Atlantic Canada is witnessing a steeper decline in permanent resident admissions compared to many other jurisdictions in Canada. This represents a serious risk to the regional economy. Since 2019, real GDP growth has rebounded across the region influenced by both immigrant participation in the workforce and the boost to household spending from population growth. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the population in all four provinces declined – for the first time in nearly a decade.

Risks and unintended consequences of universal or singular policies. What is working or has worked in the region? What have we learned from past initiatives and examples? What can we learn from others?

Case study: Atlantic Immigration Pilot

The Atlantic Immigration Pilot (AIPilot) was a federal program launched in 2017 to help Atlantic Canada address population decline, aging demographics, and labour shortages by attracting skilled immigrants and international graduates. In 2022, the pilot became a permanent program called the Atlantic Immigration Program. Unlike many immigration streams, the program was employer-driven and based on local demand. Further it focused on settlement support requiring mandatory settlement planning. Each immigrant family received a personal settlement plan through a local settlement agency.

Retention rates under the AIP improved significantly compared with earlier provincial nominee programs.

Case study: Expanded international students and the workforce

After the Covid-19 pandemic, the federal government gave more flexibility for international students and the spouses of students to work during study and expanded the use of post-graduate work permits. Combined with aggressive marketing, this led to a significant increase in the number of international students. According to Statistics Canada, the number of international students enrolled increased three times between 2014 and 2024 with most of the increase since 2021. Enrolment increased 22 per cent in just one year between 2023 and 2024.

There is a strong argument that certain schools in Ontario and British Columbia brought in too many international students and stretched the communities’ capacity to support the increased population. This was not the case for most of Atlantic Canada. International students were brought into the region to meet industry demand across the region.

Allowing these students to work while studying, along with spouses, supported local labour market needs in the short term and provided a talent pool after graduation. This model should be continued in the years ahead.

Conclusion: More than just workforce demand

Population growth is key to supporting workforce needs across Atlantic Canada over the coming decade. Arguably, there is even a more important reason to foster population growth over the next decade – to ensure that communities can thrive across the region.

Most of the region is facing a demographic timebomb. There are 375 Census subdivisions (communities) across Atlantic Canada for which Statistics Canada completed population projection scenarios in February 2026. There were 175 that a re projected to have at least one-third of the population aged 65 and older by 2035. In 2011, there were 12. There are 70 communities around the region that are projected to have at least 40 per cent of the population aged 65 and older. In 2011, there were zero.

What will aging out look like for dozens and dozens of communities across the region? With not enough working age people to provide local services, businesses will downsize or close and the remaining people will move closer to the larger urban areas to be able to access services. This downward spiral will negatively impact housing values and property taxes collected by municipalities. More mergers into large regional municipalities won’t stop K-12 school closures, health care consolidation and more industrial decline.

There is no intrinsic reason for this to happen. Most of these communities have existed for generations. For many the underlying economic foundation still exists (natural resources, geographic location, other assets and attributes) but without workers and a talent pipeline, industries will continue to decline. Without a new generation of younger entrepreneurs, the thousands of small businesses that operate in communities from Bonavista, Newfoundland and Labrador to Claire, New Brunswick will slowly close their doors.

A deliberate and intentional effort to attract young families to Atlantic Canada – both urban and rural areas – is not just about short-term workforce demand. It is about the survival and prospering of communities. It is about growing the K-12 student population. It is about growing the local tax base that funds public services. It is about hope for the next generation.

Recommendations

So how do we grow the population of Atlantic Canada in an intentional and sustained way in the years to come? Here are a number of recommendations:

1. Work with the federal government to ensure immigration programs will support population growth in the region. To grow the regional workforce by 13 per cent (from a 1.37 million workers in 2025 to 1.55 million in 2035) and to meet replacement demand, the overall population in Atlantic Canada will need to grow on average by between 1.5 per cent and 2.0 per cent per year. The four provincial government should work to get an agreement with the federal government on this population growth target.
2. Encourage local communities to take the lead on population growth planning. Each community should have a population growth plan including housing development, local services, recreation infrastructure and community attraction efforts. Very small communities could collaborate with neighbouring municipalities.
3. Ensure there is adequate immigrant settlement support at the community level around the region. Not all new population will be newcomers to Canada, but many will. It is important to have the settlement support services to ensure as many immigrants put down roots as possible. Immigrant retention will need to improve from the current levels.
4. Align tourism and people attraction plans. Tourism is an excellent way to showcase communities to potential migrants (from elsewhere in Canada and around the world).
5. Ensure there is alignment between talent development and population attraction and workforce occupational demand. Building on the work already underway around the region, young people should be exposed to career opportunities at home. Universities and colleges should be graduating a workforce with the needed skills, and immigrant and international student attraction efforts should aligned with occupational and entrepreneurial needs in the local communities.
6. Target immigrants specifically for the construction trades. It is clear there is not enough domestic supply to address construction demand in the coming years. While there has been an increase in apprentices in recent years, many more will be needed.
7. Continue to develop local economic development opportunities. The backbone of any community is the economy. Good paying careers and entrepreneurial ventures anchor communities large and small. These good jobs will attract families and other members of the household (students, second income earners) become a source of secondary workers for service industry jobs.
8. Encourage the growth of post-secondary education (PSE) services around the region. PSE is an ideal conduit to attract newcomers to a community. They get to ‘test drive’ the community while in school, can work in a service industry while studying and graduate with a degree or diploma that helps their integration into the workforce. This should not be focused only on the large urban centres. Instead of reducing the number of international students in the region’s universities and colleges, the number should be increased subject to the communities’ ability to provide housing and services to the students.
9. Consider expanding the use of temporary foreign workers where there is a demonstrated demand. The seasonal nature of many rural industries in Atlantic Canada is a barrier to population growth. The jobs do not pay enough to bring in new permanent workers. When there is a clear need for workers for a defined period of time (10-25 weeks per year), using TFWs could be a win-win for the employers and the workers as the earn income and then take it back home for much of the year. Experience in Ontario, Quebec and elsewhere shows that a permanent migrant workforce can be successful.
10. Develop entrepreneur attraction plans. Each community should develop an inventory of potential entrepreneurial opportunities ranging from health care to personal and professional services. If there is enough demand for a physiotherapist, optometrist, coffee shop, kayaking business, the community should promote these opportunities to potential entrepreneurs.

Appendix A: Workforce demand model sources and assumptions

Appendix B: Permanent resident admissions by occupation group (2021-2025)

Newfoundland and Labrador

Prince Edward Island

New Brunswick