After the midterms, into the great unknown

Dan Pujdak is a PPF Fellow and chief strategy officer at Blackbird Strategies, an Ottawa-based public affairs firm.

If opinion columns are any indication of how Canadians feel after Americans delivered a strong rebuke to President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in the midterm elections, champagne bottles very well may be popping from coast to coast to coast. Beware the potential hangover.

Canadians are about to encounter a new set of unknowns in American politics that could drastically shape the remaining two years of the Trump administration, if not the next decade of Canada-America relations.

An ascendent Democratic Party will now need to choose which of its political identities will shape it as it prepares for the 2028 election. And separately, a wounded Republican Party will need to decide if MAGA-ism remains viable and, if not, what will replace it. The choices each party makes will be consequential for Americans – and for us North of the border.

This year’s midterm election highlighted a growing tug-of-war among Democrats. The party’s progressive candidates, whose primaries took up considerable oxygen within the party, have positioned themselves as the Democrats of the future — notwithstanding it is older centrist stalwarts who will form the party’s leadership and younger centrists who won by large margins in states that historically have been unkind to the party. It isn’t clear which faction will define the party’s future.

A progressive Democratic party might not fix Canada trade woes. That wing may find fiscal constraints to their social program ambitions – and may come to learn that tariffs offer a very attractive revenue source. The Democratic Socialists of America has traditionally been opposed to free trade deals, including with Canada, seeing them as tools for corporate interests that undermine labour rights.

Centrist Democrats are no stranger to economic nationalism either, seeing it as essential to national supply-chain security. The Biden Administration championed Buy America policies and executive orders while at the same time pursuing a policy of “friendshoring” – which, in practical terms, sought greater degrees of American ownership over Canadian critical mineral projects.

So while Canadians might expect the tone to improve, an ascendant Democratic party of either stripe offers uncertain outcomes.

On the other side of the aisle, MAGA isn’t quite dead. Its chief proponent, the president, remains in full control of executive authority. His allies are still massive fundraising forces. High profile candidates who openly challenged MAGA assumptions lost, including senate candidates in New Hampshire, Michigan and Maine, despite notable Democratic controversies in the latter two.

Canada knows what to expect from MAGA-ism, but no one yet knows what philosophy could replace it in the GOP.

Vice President J.D. Vance has started to telegraph a new MAGA movement, one that is more ideological and less malleable to the charisma of individual politicians. The day after the election, he denounced the war in Iran, signalling his desire to return to original MAGA promises. Is a more ideological MAGA around the corner?

While policy makers and analysts will look for signals of the future, there are very real uncertainties today.

Trump’s executive branch still wields significant power over international relations and trade. While the president has signalled openness to working with Democrats, we do not know what good will could look like within either party – including on future trade measures which either the executive and legislative branch could complicate if political expediency calls for it. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Carney and Trump are negotiating a deal. But the trade war and the war in Iran rage on, with Canadians feeling the price. And our dependencies on American trade remain.

Canadians can take a moment to feel relieved. But if disappointment is the difference between expectations and reality, we might want to keep wild optimism in check.